Ukraine says it hit 12 Russian refineries in September. No refinery strikes reported since Trump’s “energy ceasefire”

In September, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense reported that its forces targeted 12 major Russian refineries. The farthest among these was Lukoil's refinery in Perm, located roughly 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine. Since President Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" on October 11th, there have been no additional reports of Ukrainian refinery strikes according to Euromaidan Press, which monitors both Ukrainian and Russian sources.

This pause in strikes between Ukrainian and Russian refineries presents a conundrum. It restricts Ukraine's capacity to disrupt Russia's oil industry, while simultaneously allowing Russia to continue attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. This dynamic becomes especially significant as both nations utilize energy infrastructure as a strategic target in the ongoing conflict.

The situation intensified following the implementation of the "energy ceasefire." Despite this, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed a strike on the Samara oil pumping station on October 10th, marking the third attack on the station that month. Following President Trump's announcement, no new refinery strikes were reported in Russia, including on October 13th.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russia launched an attack on six Ukrainian energy facilities on October 12th. The White House suggested that the "energy ceasefire" proposal would initially involve both parties ceasing attacks on oil refineries, with potential further agreements concerning power plants. Russia's acceptance of such a ceasefire remains unanswered.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that this proposal would grant Russia a significant concession without any reciprocal benefits for Ukraine. Russia boasts numerous operating refineries, in stark contrast to Ukraine's lone refinery. Moreover, the proposal could allow Russia to persist with its winter assaults on Ukrainian power stations.