IDEAM Officially Confirms the Presence of the El Niño Phenomenon in Colombia

The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) has officially confirmed the presence of the El Niño phenomenon in Colombia on October 8. The agency classified the intensity of the phenomenon as being between strong and very strong. El Niño, which arises from the warming of the Pacific Ocean, is expected to persist through the first half of 2027. The phenomenon is anticipated to bring about a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperatures.

Although seasonal rains are still observed in the Caribbean, Andean, and Pacific regions, forecasts suggest that the rainfall deficit could worsen starting in December. Colombia is experiencing its second rainy season of the year, which commences in late September and reaches its peak precipitation probabilities in October and November, particularly in the Andean and Caribbean regions.

Due to the interaction of diverse atmospheric systems during this period, heavy rain, storms, and electrical activity may occur even when overall climatic conditions indicate lower-than-average precipitation for the season.

Based on the climate forecast, below-normal rainfall is expected in October across extensive areas of the Caribbean, Andean, Pacific regions, as well as much of the Orinoquia region. For the October-November-December quarter, there is also a projected continuation of precipitation levels below historical averages, with December being the most critical month.

Nonetheless, this does not imply that rainfall will cease entirely. The forecast pertains to the accumulated and average behavior of precipitation throughout a specific period, implying that isolated occurrences of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and other meteorological phenomena may materialize.

During the second rainy season, the probability of events such as intense rainfall, sudden rises in water levels, flooding, landslides, lightning strikes, and strong winds heightens, contingent on the specific conditions prevailing in each territory and region of the country. In response to these warnings, the National Government initiated an interinstitutional reaction under Presidential Directive 03 and Law 1523 of 2012.

The National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) coordinates response capabilities across various territories and enhances forest fire monitoring through satellite tools. The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development is undertaking measures to safeguard strategic ecosystems, water sources, and regions most susceptible to these impacts.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy is formulating an emergency plan to ensure the nation's energy security by bolstering thermal power generation, securing backup fuel supplies, and implementing efficiency and conservation measures outlined in the Plan Energia YA. The overarching objective of the National Government is to preempt risks, safeguard Colombian lives, secure water and energy supplies, and fortify the State's response capacity in the face of the El Niño phenomenon's consequences.