WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly upgraded its 2026 global trade growth forecast to 3.9%, a major increase from its previous prediction of 1.9%. This surge is largely attributed to the flourishing artificial intelligence (AI) sector and the adaptability of global supply chains in the face of the Middle East crisis.

WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala explained that trade resilience allows economies to maintain the flow of essential goods during disruptions. Despite the Iran conflict causing supply chain challenges in energy, fertiliser, and transport markets, global container traffic increased by 3.9% in the first half of 2026. The surge in AI investment, which led to a 67% year-on-year rise in semiconductor and data centre spending, played a crucial role in offsetting the negative impacts of the conflict.

While most economies outside the Middle East region remained resilient, services trade and some regions experienced more significant challenges. Asia is predicted to see the fastest merchandise export growth at 9.9%, followed by North America at 5.7%, while Europe saw a slight decline and the Middle East faced a sharp contraction.

WTO economists warned that a slowdown in AI investment could lead to a decrease in global trade growth.