WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

The World Trade Organization has dramatically raised its forecast for global trade growth in 2026, citing the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) as a key driver. Merchandise trade is now projected to grow by 3.9% this year, up from the previous 1.9% estimate. The WTO expects trade growth to reach 4.1% next year, a significant increase from the March forecast of 2.6%.

The revised figures reflect the resilience of the global economy and the rules-based trading system, according to WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Despite disruptions in the Middle East, which have reduced energy supplies and raised prices, most economies outside of the region have remained resilient. Supply chains have adapted to the challenges posed by the Iran war, with global container traffic increasing by 3.9% in the first seven months of 2026.

Strong demand linked to AI investment has more than offset the negative effects of the conflict, with global crude oil exports falling by only about 6% and liquefied natural gas exports dropping by 1%. AI investment has surged, with spending on semiconductors, data centres, and digital infrastructure raising demand for imported AI-enabling goods.

This has accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth this year, accelerating an expansion trend that was already strong in 2024 and 2025. WTO economists warn that any slowdown in AI investment could lead to a slowdown in trade. Global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30% this year, with market forecasts suggesting further growth of 10 to 20% in 2027.

AI-enabling goods have transitioned from a component of merchandise trade to one of its main drivers, largely supplied by East and Southeast Asian economies and driven by demand in North America. However, trade resilience is not uniform, with some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. Asia is projected to record the fastest merchandise export growth (9.9%), while Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1%, and the Middle East a sharp contraction of 17.2%.