WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

The World Trade Organization recently increased its 2026 global trade growth forecast to 3.9%, up from 1.9% originally predicted in March. This significant boost is attributed to the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and its impact on global trade. The WTO projects trade growth to reach 4.1% next year, reflecting the resilience of the global economy amidst the ongoing Middle East crisis.

Supply chain adaptations and substantial investments in AI have fueled increased demand for imported AI-enabling goods, providing a substantial boost to global merchandise trade. Increased spending on semiconductors, data centres, and digital infrastructure has played a crucial role in driving this expansion. In the first half of 2026 alone, global container traffic surged by 3.9%, while global crude oil exports fell by only 6% and liquefied natural gas exports dropped by 1%.

WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the flexibility of an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system, which allows essential products to reach businesses and households even during disruptions. However, the organization noted that not all economies benefited equally, with some feeling the impact of the conflict more than others.

While the Iran war caused disruptions in the energy, fertiliser, and transport markets, most economies outside the region managed to adapt successfully, resulting in a 3.5% increase in merchandise trade during the first half of 2026. The surge in AI investment more than offset the negative effects of the conflict, with global AI infrastructure spending expected to rise by at least 30% this year.

The rapid growth of AI-enabling goods has transformed them from a component of merchandise trade to one of its main drivers, with East and Southeast Asian economies supplying these goods while North America drives demand.