Vitol CEO says current Middle East flows enough to prevent $200/barrel scenario

Oil prices remained relatively stable on Tuesday after previously falling, as traders considered rising Middle Eastern exports and a potential G7 release of emergency diesel and crude reserves, alongside concerns over Houthi attacks in Yemen. Brent futures slipped 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $100.03 a barrel, while US WTI crude rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $89.59, bringing Brent close to its lowest close since September 22.

Analyst John Evans noted that the assumption of more crude reaching markets had lessened price enthusiasm. Around 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million bpd of refined products have been exported from the Middle East in the past week, according to Vitol CEO. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reported that oil through the East-West Pipeline to the kingdom's Red Sea port of Yanbu had reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning.

However, price declines were limited by the potential for further supply disruptions from the region. Saudi Arabia's airports in Jazan and Najran were hit in two attacks on Monday, injuring three people and causing minor damage, as tensions with Iran-backed Houthis intensified. The G7 agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency stocks and pledged to avoid energy export restrictions.

The US EIA forecast that global oil production would fall from a record 106.3 million bpd in 2025 to 101.1 million bpd in 2026, while demand would decrease from 104.4 million bpd to 102.4 million bpd in the same year.