The Commodities Feed: Oil stuck between improving supply and Persian Gulf risks

The oil market experienced a tug-of-war yesterday, with Brent trading down towards $97 per barrel, yet still settling above $100 due to Persian Gulf supply risks. The market's uncertainty rests on addressing lingering threats to supply. Middle distillates, such as gasoil, faced weakness with the crack trading around $73 per barrel, down from over $90 in September.

Reduced diesel export ban fears and European strategic reserve releases provided some relief. However, the market anticipates this is a temporary fix, as underlying tightness in middle distillates persists. The prospect of normalizing Persian Gulf and Russian diesel flows remains unlikely in the near future. US crude oil inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels last week, with Cushing storage increasing by 866,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels, while distillate supplies rose by 461,000 barrels. The EIA inventory data will be released later today. Meanwhile, gold prices climbed as lower oil prices and stronger bond markets eased inflation concerns and dampened expectations of further interest rate hikes. Central banks, including China, Poland, Uzbekistan, and Turkey, continued to buy gold, adding a total of 39 tonnes, bringing the year-to-date purchases to 170 tonnes.

Russia decreased its gold reserves by 6 tonnes. With continued central bank buying and longer-term reserve diversification objectives, official-sector demand is expected to sustain the market's upward momentum.