Turning down the temperature in the Horn of Africa is good for the Middle East too

Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels during the final week of September, shipping data revealed on Monday, despite heightened attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Exports surpassed pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 to 29, peaking between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd, according to provisional data from Kpler, a ship-tracking firm.

Exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2025 before the escalation of US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The 7-day moving average for crude exports reached 18.5 million bpd on October 1. These exports encompass transits through the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, ports, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The total for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30. LNG shipments exiting the strait also increased in September to the highest monthly level since February. These figures exclude ships with Automatic Identification System transponders disabled to evade detection.

Prior to the Iran war starting on February 28, the strait typically accommodated about 125 large commercial vessels daily, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and containers, which accounted for 20% of the global daily crude oil and LNG supply. However, tanker attacks persisted in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported, as per shipping intelligence firm Marisks in a report on Saturday.

The large crude carrier Kazimah III was hit by an unknown projectile on October 1 while passing through the strait, resulting in a fire onboard. All crew members were safely evacuated. The vessel had discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port on September 17, as per Kpler data. Its owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not provide comment.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Marisks stated that merchant vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz now face a heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat due to the recent surge in traffic. Reports indicate that recent incidents might not necessarily target individual vessels deliberately.

Instead, Iranian forces could be launching missiles into a predetermined area or "kill box," with weapons potentially acquiring and targeting radar signatures within that zone. The presence within the engagement zone at the appropriate time may be the primary exposure, according to Marisks.