Cocoa prices risen by 95% since March 2026, to average US$5,670 in 2026
El Niño’s adverse weather conditions is expected to place downward pressure on the 2026/27 cocoa output, forecasting cocoa production of 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana.
Cocoa prices have surged by 95.1% since the start of March 2026, driven by concerns over lower crop yields in the upcoming 2026/27 season. Fitch Solutions predicts cocoa output to be 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana, leading to greater supply pressure. The firm expects cocoa prices to average $4,990 per tonne in 2026 and $5,670 per tonne in 2027, though these figures are still higher than the 2014-2023 average of $2,642 per tonne.
Nigerian and Cameroonian markets will feel the impact more acutely due to liberalised pricing, while gains in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana will be more limited. The government's pricing mechanisms in both countries mean domestic prices are less closely tied to global cocoa prices, resulting in a lagged response to price increases. Additionally, farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire may be more inclined to sell their cocoa through unofficial channels to capitalize on higher prices, which could further reduce cocoa exports from these regions.
Written by urgent.news from MyJoyOnline Ghana's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
