Cocoa prices risen by 95% since March 2026, to average US$5,670 in 2026
El Niño’s adverse weather conditions is expected to place downward pressure on the 2026/27 cocoa output, forecasting cocoa production of 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana.
Cocoa prices have surged by 95.1% since early March 2026, owing to concerns over diminished harvests in the 2026-27 season, according to Fitch Solutions. The anticipated reduction in production volumes, at least nominally, will be partially mitigated by the elevated prices. Fitch Solutions anticipates adverse weather conditions stemming from El Niño to further dampen cocoa output, predicting 1.7 million tonnes from Côte d'Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes from Ghana.
Consequently, Côte d'Ivoire is projected to experience a 17.5% year-over-year decline in output, while Ghana's output is expected to remain unchanged, the UK-based firm noted. Fitch Solutions currently estimates cocoa prices to average US$4,990 per tonne in 2026 and US$5,670 per tonne in 2027, although these levels are still higher than the 2014-2023 average of US$2,642 per tonne.
The benefits of this price surge will be most significant for Nigeria and Cameroon, where more flexible pricing mechanisms enable domestic prices to more closely follow global cocoa prices. In contrast, gains in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana will likely be less pronounced, as their governments operate pricing mechanisms that set domestic cocoa prices.
Additionally, both Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana typically forward sell their cocoa crops, typically three to six months ahead, which creates a delay before the effects of higher prices become apparent. Fitch Solutions explains that higher cocoa prices also stimulate farmers in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire to sell beyond official channels, potentially exacerbating export losses in both countries.
The firm warns that when global prices soar above domestic farmgate prices, farmers are more inclined to transport cocoa to neighboring countries where they can earn higher returns. In fact, during 2024 and 2025 when global cocoa prices peaked at record highs, neighboring nations like Guinea and Togo witnessed substantial increases in cocoa exports, despite not having substantial domestic cocoa industries of their own.
Therefore, a resurgence in smuggling could further diminish officially documented cocoa exports from Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.
Written by urgent.news from Joy Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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