Cocoa prices surge 95% since March as El Niño threatens 2026/27 crop yields – Fitch Solutions
Cocoa prices have risen by 95.1% since the beginning of March 2026, as fears of reduced crop yields in the 2026/27 season have pushed prices higher. According to Fitch Solutions, higher cocoa prices will partly offset lower production volumes in nominal export terms. El Niño’s adverse weather conditions is expected to place downward pressure on […]
Cocoa prices have surged by 95.1% since March 2026 due to concerns about reduced crop yields in the upcoming 2026/27 season, according to Fitch Solutions. The increase in prices is expected to partially counterbalance the decline in production volumes when measured in nominal export terms. Fitch Solutions predicts cocoa output to be 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana for the 2026/27 season, indicating greater near-term supply pressure in Côte d’Ivoire, where output is projected to decrease by 17.5% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Ghana's production is forecast to remain steady. The news agency reported that cocoa prices are now expected to average US$4,990/tonne in 2026 and US$5,670/tonne in 2027, which, although lower than the levels seen in 2024 and 2025, are significantly higher than the 2014-2023 average of US$2,642/tonne. The impact of these price increases will be most significant in Nigeria and Cameroon, where liberalized pricing mechanisms allow domestic prices to more closely follow global cocoa prices.
However, gains in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana will be less pronounced due to the government-operated pricing mechanisms in place. Both countries also forward sell their cocoa crops three-to-six months in advance, which means there will be a delay before higher prices are reflected in the market. Elevated cocoa prices have the added benefit of increasing the incentive for farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire to sell their cocoa through unofficial channels, which could exacerbate export losses in both markets.
The news agency added that when global prices rise sharply above domestic farmgate prices, farmers are more likely to move their cocoa into neighboring countries where they can achieve higher returns. This trend was evident in 2024 and 2025, when record-high global cocoa prices led to steep increases in cocoa exports to neighboring countries such as Guinea and Togo.
The news agency warned that a renewed rise in smuggling could further diminish officially recorded cocoa exports from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
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