Middle East oil exports recover to pre-Iran war levels despite Hormuz attacks

Middle East crude oil exports, excluding Iran, have rebounded to pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data from trade intelligence firm Kpler. In late September, exports surpassed the pre-war average of around 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million bpd during the final week of September.

This recovery has been facilitated by alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. In September, approximately 40% of crude left the Gulf without crossing Hormuz, compared to only 17% before the Iran war. Over 70% of the crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August, a stark contrast to the minimal tanker changes in the Gulf of Oman prior to the war.

Saudi Arabia has also increased exports via the Red Sea, while the UAE utilized its pipeline to Fujairah. Iran remains the major exception, with its exports still below the pre-war average due to US policies. However, attacks on vessels have persisted around Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported in recent weeks, including a tanker, Kazimah III, being struck by an unknown projectile on October 1.