Middle East crude exports regain pre-war pace

Middle East oil exports, not including Iran, have risen back above pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data from Kpler. In late September, exports surpassed the pre-war average of approximately 18 million barrels per day for four days, ranging between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd.

When the Strait of Hormuz closed following the onset of the Iran war, the seven-day average of non-Iranian crude leaving the region dropped by 72% in just 10 days, as reported by Kpler. The recovery has been facilitated by alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. In September, roughly 40% of crude oil was exported from the Gulf without crossing Hormuz, compared to just 17% before the Iran war.

According to Kpler, over 70% of the crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August, a significant increase from the near-zero rate before the war. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has augmented its exports via the Red Sea, while the UAE employs its pipeline to Fujairah. Iran, however, remains the major exception, with its exports still falling short of the pre-war average primarily due to US policies.

Recent weeks have witnessed continued attacks on ships around Hormuz; at least seven incidents have been reported, with the Kazimah III tanker reportedly struck by an unknown projectile on October 1, though all crew members were safely evacuated.