Why is the US Dollar rising despite October Fed hike odds fading?

On Monday, oil prices remained close to $100 per barrel, with Brent crude futures at $102.30 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $90.62 a barrel. This stability in prices can be attributed to ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Market participants are wary that the conflict could disrupt crude shipments and energy infrastructure.

The G7 countries have pledged to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves, but traders remain uncertain about the extent of the actual increase in supply. Middle Eastern crude exports have already exceeded pre-war levels on four out of seven days in the final week of September, even as attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz persist. The Strait is a crucial oil shipping route, and any disruption there could quickly tighten global supplies and push prices higher.

Another factor contributing to the high prices is China's decision to suspend some product exports, which is creating a tighter supply situation for refined fuels. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the global oil market may remain tight for a long time, estimating that rebuilding oil stockpiles could take up to two years.

The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the G7 release and the ongoing fighting in the Middle East, including recent attacks by the Houthis, further adds to the risk premium in oil prices.

Despite these challenges, Middle Eastern crude exports have shown resilience, rising above pre-war levels on several occasions. However, the overall outlook for oil production remains uncertain, as OPEC+ has delayed a review that would have determined oil production quotas for its members in 2027. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has cut crude oil prices for Asian customers to a six-year low, which could further impact market dynamics.

The combination of these factors suggests that Brent will likely remain above $100, possibly for an extended period, until the situation in the Middle East stabilizes and supply concerns are adequately addressed.