Oil steadies as Middle East supply rebounds

Crude oil flows from the Middle East are inching closer to their pre-war levels, according to estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group. The shipments have risen to 17.5 million barrels per day, representing 98% of pre-war levels. Product flows such as diesel and petrol are at 3 million barrels daily, or 58% of pre-war levels. This recovery is "a remarkable feat for a region still at war," though it has been inconsistent, according to JPMorgan analysts, including Natasha Kaneva.

The global oil market is closely monitoring Middle East oil exports amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Saudi Arabia has partially restored flows on its East-West pipeline, which supplies its Red Sea ports, after damage earlier this month. The Strait of Hormuz has been seeing almost "late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day," primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, although the improvement in crossings should not be seen as enhanced safety but rather the industry's ability to function under risk.

Goldman Sachs reports oil exports from the Persian Gulf, including illicit flows, have returned to 23.3 million barrels daily, matching the 2025 average. The waters around Hormuz have faced ongoing attacks as Iran asserts control over the waterway, though the US has rejected Iran's claim and imposed a blockade on its ports while assisting other nations' vessels.

Saudi Arabia's exports have more than doubled in September and surpassed their 2025 average. Despite the surge, Brent crude remains on track for a 14% monthly gain in September, with front-month November futures trading 0.8% higher at US$103.43 a barrel. Goldman analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, note that the global oil market remains balanced in September, with a divergence between Iranian exports falling and other Persian Gulf producers' exports rising.