Gonzalo Bernardos: "El decreto de vivienda del Gobierno va a hundir la oferta de alquiler más de un 20%"

Gonzalo Bernardos, an expert in real estate, has warned that the measures approved by the executive will push many property owners out of the rental market, driving up prices and making it even more difficult for new tenants to access homes. The Official Journal of the State published the Royal Decree Law approved yesterday by the Council of Ministers on housing, which includes a package of measures ranging from prohibiting evictions for the next 2030, limiting rent increases, extending contracts for two years without change, restraining speculative purchases through so-called "bitter funds," and regulating seasonal rentals and rooms, among other proposals.

Bernardos, a professor of Economics at the University of Barcelona and director of the Master's program in Real Estate, believes that these reforms add more legal uncertainty to tenants, extending rental contracts, threatening the arrival of an indefinite contract that is essentially a hidden usufruct, and prohibiting evictions of vulnerable tenants.

He states that these measures have generated more scarcity in the housing market since 2020. In Barcelona, for example, the rental market has fallen by 56% between the 22nd and 25th of a recent week. According to a recent survey by Fotocasa, the measures could reduce rental prices by more than 20%.

Bernardos argues that none of the proposals work. Tenants can only raise rents by 2% (while the Consumer Price Index (IPC) rises almost 5%), meaning reduced profitability and loss of purchasing power. They cannot change tenants, they must stay with them for two more years, and they can only rent out rooms at the same price as renting the entire property. This will likely cause many students to lose their homes, as landlords will prefer other profiles if there's no economic compensation.

These measures protect current tenants but make it harder for new renters. When you put all these barriers for someone to find a rental, who is harmed? The recently arrived immigrant, the Spanish with lower incomes, they will be the biggest losers. Bernardos insists that these formulas only aggravate the problem and, of course, we forget about supply.

The construction of new homes does not matter if the official narrative is that there are many vacant homes and what we need to do is put those vacant homes on the market, but that's not true.

Undoubtedly, if the supply is reduced because people sell their homes and leave the rental market due to insecurity, it gives the rental market an opportunity to continue increasing prices. Rent increases have been on the rise, but not as much as they should be. Now, with the shortage, it will provoke even more increases in new contracts.