As the last US troops exit Iraq, Kurdish fears rise and militias celebrate

On Wednesday, US forces withdrew from their remaining bases in Iraq, marking the end of a two-decade-long occupation that began with the 2003 invasion. The departure has raised concerns that it will leave behind a security vacuum, embolden Iranian-backed militias, and provide the resurgent Islamic State group with an opportunity to regroup.

The withdrawal, welcomed by Tehran and its allies, was agreed upon in 2024 under President Joe Biden and executed by the Donald Trump administration, even as the latter waged war against Iran, which wields significant influence in Iraq through proxies.

The departure of US forces is generally popular among Iraqis; however, there are concerns that security forces trained and funded by the United States may not be able to protect the country from potential threats. Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst advising security forces, stated that "the lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous."

During the two decades of conflict, US forces died over 4,500 times, and the US withdrawal from Iraq is seen by Iran and its allies as a victory for their "axis of resistance" of allied armed groups across the region. While Iran may not directly intervene, its proxies may feel empowered, potentially expanding their influence and consolidating their presence within key institutions.

The US pullout also raises concerns about the resurgence of the Islamic State group. Despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, the militants retain a sleeper cell network. Iraq's security institutions need to prepare a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase, as one worst-case scenario involves Islamic State obtaining armed drones or improvised explosive devices, with Iraq lacking sufficient air defense capabilities to counter such threats effectively.