Argentina on brick of recession despite growth in August, experts say

The Argentine economy experienced a contraction in August, despite showing signs of growth, leading experts to warn that a recession may be unavoidable. While market analysts noted that the economy rebounded from the significant drop seen in July, they forecast that even with this recovery, a recession could not be avoided. Argentina officially entered a recession in the second quarter of 2026 when its GDP fell by 0.6% year-on-year, and plummeted by nearly 3% in the first month of the third quarter.

To prevent a recession, the economy would need to grow by around 6% month-on-month in September, a target that appears challenging given the track record. Consulting firm Equilibra estimated a seasonally adjusted monthly growth of 1.4% in August, though year-on-year activity declined by 0.5% compared to August 2025. Another firm, Eco Go, stated that a rebound in August is "to be expected," but acknowledged that "stagnation with two speeds remains the norm."

The most optimistic estimate came from Orlando Ferreres, who projected a 1.7% month-on-month growth and a 0.6% year-on-year rise. However, Ferreres cautioned that the August increase should be viewed in the context of the previous month's decline, not as a precursor to similar growth in the future. Notably, investment fell by 5.4% year-on-year, with a 7.9% drop for the first eight months of the year, raising concerns about the economic outlook.