Argentina on brick of recession despite growth in August, experts say

Argentina teeters on the brink of recession despite a slight uptick in economic activity in August, according to experts. Market analysts agree the economy rebounded after a sharp decline in July, but they warn a recession still seems inevitable. "Recession" is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and Argentina contracted 0.6% in the April-June period and nearly 3% in the first quarter of the third.

To avoid a recession, the economy would need to expand close to 6% month-on-month in September, a challenge given the country's history. Consulting firm Equilibra predicts a seasonally adjusted growth of 1.4% in August, but year-on-year activity fell 0.5% compared to August 2025. The "sawtooth effect," meaning alternating months of growth and contraction, hinders recovery.

Eco Go noted a rebound in August, but warned stagnation persists with two different speeds. Investment fell 5.4% year-on-year, totaling a 7.9% drop in the first eight months of the year under President Milei, who took office in December 2023.