USD/JPY Price Forecast: 50-day SMA caps recovery near 158.00

The USD/JPY currency pair experienced a modest increase of 0.08% on Wednesday, trading at 157.42. Since the last intervention by US and Japanese authorities, the pair has been neutral to downward-biased, moving from around 160.00 to 153.00 before recovering to the current exchange rate. Momentum initially favored buyers, but sellers have since taken control as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked at 60 and reversed to the 50-neutral level.

For USD/JPY to resume its bullish trend, it must break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.28, with the next resistance at 159.00 and the 100-day SMA at 159.57. If the pair falls below the day's low of 156.38, it may challenge 156.00, exposing the May 6 low of 155.04 and the September 8 low of 152.89. The Japanese Yen has shown strength against various currencies this month, including the New Zealand Dollar.

The AUD/USD pair has also shown weakness, falling to the mid-0.6900s for the first time since late July due to inflation figures that did not meet market expectations. On Thursday, traders will focus on the release of August's trade balance results. In terms of market sentiment, the greenback has faced losses on Wednesday due to hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks, which support the Japanese Yen.

Meanwhile, a broader US Dollar retreat also contributes to the pair's downward pressure. Gold has reversed its trend and moved toward the $4,150 region per troy ounce on Wednesday, receding from the key $4,200 level as the US Dollar loses some of its daily losses amid mixed US Treasury yields. The EUR/USD pair dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, but a potential fresh inflation shock in the Eurozone could provide an unexpected boost to the Euro.