Apple leads China smartphone sales after launch of iPhone 18 Pro. Can the momentum last?

Apple has taken the lead in China's smartphone market following the launch of its iPhone 18 Pro series on September 18. Counterpoint Research, a market analysis firm, reported that sales of the new Pro models surged 12 percent during their first three days, surpassing sales of the previous year's iPhone 17 Pro lineup in its entirety. This impressive start propelled Apple to claim first place by smartphone sales for the week of September 14 to 20, with the company securing 33 percent of the market.

Ivan Lam, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, attributed Apple's success to two key factors: the delayed launch of the base iPhone 18, which encouraged consumers to upgrade to the Pro series, and the fact that many Chinese flagship models were priced over $200 higher, enhancing the iPhone's value proposition. Despite the encouraging trend, Counterpoint expects China's smartphone market to continue gaining momentum as domestic brands release their flagship devices ahead of the National Day holiday.

Chinese competitors such as Huawei Technologies have already made waves with their foldable devices, including the foldable Pura X Max and the widescreen Pura X View. Xiaomi also added the 18 Fold to its lineup. Apple's upcoming first foldable handset, the iPhone Duo, set to launch on October 23, could provide further momentum.

UBS, a financial institution, stated that Chinese consumers show a growing interest in foldable devices compared to other international markets. The bank maintained its forecast for Apple's global iPhone sales for the current financial year, predicting shipments to reach 261 million units, up 15.4 percent year-on-year.

However, these gains come amid challenges facing the broader industry. The global smartphone market grapples with a shortage of memory chips due to surging demand for AI infrastructure, which is putting pressure on supplies for consumer electronics. China's weekly handset sales have declined by double-digits year-on-year since July, according to Counterpoint, which cited soft consumer spending and elevated chip costs as the main drivers of this weakness.

The memory shortage is expected to further dampen global smartphone shipments throughout 2026, with IDC forecasting a 16.7 percent market decline and Counterpoint projecting a 14 percent drop.