Russia’s mass drone attacks on Ukraine have a goal—likely Ukraine’s capitulation by spring 2027, ISW says

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes Russia is aiming to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027 through a large-scale campaign of long-range strikes, primarily using jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles. President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory hinges on the mass use of these jet-powered drones, which Ukraine's defenses have difficulty stopping, leading Russia to allocate scarce missile resources to them.

The use of jet-powered drones surged eightfold from June to August, with around 7,700 such drones launched since their initial deployment, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat on September 23.

However, Putin likely doesn't anticipate this campaign to continue indefinitely and may delay a new mobilization until he assesses the effectiveness of the strikes. Even a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on September 27 that the Russian strategy, reliant on long-range strikes, is costly and unsustainable in the long term due to Ukraine's counterattacks.

Despite this, Putin stated on September 25 that Ukraine must experience Russia's retaliatory strikes, indicating his intention to intensify the campaign during the winter, as he has in past winters.

If Putin believes Ukraine will capitulate by winter, he might be overlooking the long-term costs of the campaign for Russia, such as the strain on Ukraine's Patriot interceptors against ballistic missiles and its power grid and other vital systems. Until Ukraine's interceptors disrupt Russia's strike plan, Putin is unlikely to back down from his demands or agree to real ceasefire talks, according to ISW.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on September 26 that Ukraine's interception rate for jet-powered Shahed drones stands at 55%. Out of over 2,730 such drones launched by Russia in September, Ukrainian forces have downed or suppressed more than 1,500. The Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov mentioned that Ukraine is testing interceptor drone prototypes in combat conditions, with mass deployment likely within several months.

Ukrainian companies have successfully tested several interceptor drones capable of intercepting Russian jet-powered drones in field conditions. However, it remains uncertain whether Ukraine can escalate its interceptor program quickly enough to disrupt the intensification of Russia's campaign during the winter, as ISW notes.