Märkte Insight: Die Nike-Aktie zeigt, wo Bewertungen an ihre Grenzen stoßen

Nike, a leading sportswear manufacturer, has been a notable loser in recent stock market years. Its share price has plummeted by around 80% compared to its 2021 peak value. However, the company's valuation based on earnings has also declined. Despite this, it is not an immediate buy, as its high point was reached in November 2021.

In the previous fiscal year 2020/2021, which ended on May 31, 2021, Nike had increased revenue and profit to record highs, which were further enhanced in the 2021/2022 fiscal year. This euphoria drove the stock price up by 80% from early 2020 to the record high in November 2021. Based on the net profit of the previous fiscal year, Nike was valued at 50 times annual earnings.

A combination of strategic errors and new competitors has hindered Nike's growth since the record high. In the 2025/26 fiscal year, revenue grew only 4% compared to May 2021, while the net profit plummeted by 45%, reflected in the declining stock price over the years. Now the question arises if the stock has reached its bottom. The valuation initially appears attractive, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at only 17 based on last year's net earnings.

However, deriving an entry point from this alone would be flawed. The Nike example illustrates where valuation limits lie in stocks. Currently, Adidas is valued more favorably than Nike. In 2021, Nike was considered a growth company by investors, increasing revenue and profit rapidly and thus inflating its valuation. To view Nike as a growth company today, one would need to be imaginative.

Analysts expect another decline in the net profit of the current fiscal year, but it should start rising from the next one, but it would still be 40% below the May 2021 level. Considering this, the Nike stock appears moderate rather than undervalued. Adidas' P/E ratio for the current fiscal year is even lower. Attractive as the high dividend yield of 4.6% may seem, the combination of the stock price decline of a market leader, a seemingly lower valuation, and high dividends should make investors cautious.

This applies to German automobile manufacturers as well, who have not stopped their downward trend on the stock market despite all. Whether the Nike stock is a buy should not be judged solely by its valuation, but rather by the question of whether Nike is expected to generate stronger and more profitable growth. Analyst Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America is skeptical in her Friday published analysis, citing Nike's innovational power overshadowed by a struggling classic goods business and the challenging economic environment.

She fears a turnaround for Nike in the 2028 fiscal year and lowered her estimate for the stock to "sell." However, only 13 out of 44 analysts recommended buying in the LSEG financial service.