Thorsten Ball - What I believe about the future of software development

Thorsten Ball discusses his beliefs about the future of software development. He predicts that code review will become obsolete, as models will be able to find and fix bugs almost instantly. Unit tests might also become unnecessary, as models can handle writing complex code. The skill of writing code itself will fade away, with more emphasis on solving business problems using software.

The current model of open source may not be sustainable, given the availability of artificial intelligence tools. Performance-critical contributions by humans will be rare, as models can optimize code efficiently. The terminal and developer tooling will become obsolete, replaced by token-based computing. Traditional roles like PM/Design/Eng may disappear, as engineers shift to acting as intermediaries between models and humans.

The distinction between software engineering at large corporations and small companies will widen, with start-ups able to innovate rapidly with limited constraints. The importance of "good code" is questioned, as it is largely based on human readability. Some individuals may find themselves priced out of the software production market, similar to the early days of personal computers.

The role of AI-generated UI will become increasingly important, reducing the need for human-accessible interfaces. As AI models improve and become faster, the need for human-written code may diminish, leading to a shift in job requirements.