Ohio State football updated game-by-game ESPN predictions after Week 4

As the 2026 Ohio State football season progresses, ESPN's Matchup Predictor updates its game-by-game predictions for the Buckeyes' remaining schedule. After a strong start with a blowout victory over Illinois, the model reassesses the chances of Ohio State winning the rest of their games. The Buckeyes' road contests at Indiana, Iowa, and USC, along with home games against Oregon and Michigan, factor into these analytics.

Here's a week-by-week breakdown of the projected outcomes and how they have evolved since the season's beginning:

Sept. 5 vs. Ball State (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): The model predicts a 99% chance of Ohio State winning, with an actual result of a 56-3 victory. This leads to a current all-time series record of 1-0.

Sept. 12 at Texas Longhorns (Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas): The prediction shifts to Texas winning with a 59.9% probability. Ohio State's loss to Texas ends that season series at 3-3, with a current running record of 1-1.

Sept. 19 vs. Kent State (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): The model remains confident in Ohio State's victory, with a 99% chance, and a 59-3 win. The all-time series record is now 4-0, and the running record stands at 2-1.

Sept. 26 at Illinois (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): Ohio State's win probability drops to 95.3%, and they go on to win 42-19. The all-time series record is now 70-30-4, with a running record of 3-1.

Oct. 3 at Iowa (Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa): The predicted win probability for Ohio State falls to 82.9%, and they go on to win 39-10. The series record becomes 48-15-3, and the projected running record stands at 4-1.

Oct. 10 vs. Maryland (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): Ohio State's win probability increases to 98%, and they win 47-17. The all-time series record expands to 9-0, and the running record is now 5-1.

Oct. 17 at Indiana (Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana): The predicted win probability drops slightly to 54.3%, and Ohio State loses 38-37. The all-time series record is now 80-13-5, and the projected running record stands at 6-1.

Oct. 31 at USC (Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California): Ohio State's win probability rises to 77.9%, and they win 45-31. The all-time series record against USC stands at 13-10-1, with a projected running record of 7-1.

Nov. 7 at Oregon (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): The model reduces Ohio State's win probability to 77.8%, and they win 34-29. The all-time series record becomes 10-2, and the projected running record is now 8-1.

Nov. 14 at Northwestern (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): Ohio State's win probability decreases to 91%, and they win 35-14. The all-time series record stands at 66-14-1, and the projected running record is 9-1.

Nov. 21 at Nebraska (Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska): Ohio State's win probability falls to 75.9%, and they win 38-24. The all-time series record expands to 10-1, and the projected running record stands at 10-1.

Nov. 28 at Michigan (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio): Ohio State's win probability increases to 88.5%, with a predicted victory of 38-24. The all-time series against Michigan currently stands at 62-52-6, with a projected running record of 11-1.