The AI job apocalypse hasn't hit recent college grads, at least not yet

A recent analysis of US employment data from the CESifo research institute in Munich reveals no significant evidence that AI has pushed recent college graduates out of the labor market, according to a report published in 2026. The study, focusing on bachelor's degree holders aged 22 to 25 who were not pursuing further education, found an unemployment rate of 7.3% in the summer of 2026, which falls within the range observed in the previous four years.

This finding contrasts with growing concerns that generative AI could reduce entry-level hiring and a Stanford University study suggesting weaker employment trends for younger workers in AI-exposed occupations. The researchers, Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu, utilized microdata from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, examining summer results from 2022 to 2026.

They observed that the 7.3% unemployment rate for recent graduates in 2026 was higher than in 2022 but lower than in 2024. Comparisons with non-college graduates and older college graduates aged 30 to 49 showed no statistically significant differences in employment trends. The analysis categorized jobs by their estimated exposure to AI based on earlier research, but these categorizations did not reveal significant differences in employment during the studied period.

While the CESifo researchers acknowledge that AI may still be affecting the job market in ways not captured by this particular measure, they emphasize the need for closer monitoring of future graduating classes as AI adoption continues to grow.