The illusion of the easy war

On March 1, President Donald Trump declared that the US-Israeli war with Iran would last about four weeks and result in regime change in Tehran. This was a "shock and awe" conflict, relying on precision strikes and technological superiority. America's military edge delivered initial results without ground troops and with operations supported from locations worldwide. However, Washington walked into an avoidable trap, seeking to achieve too much in too short a time from far away.

Advanced militaries often perceive that technological superiority and distance make it easier to start wars but do not guarantee victory in asymmetric conflicts. The Iraq-Iran War of 1980-1988 served as a reminder that human-wave assaults and cheap drones can challenge cutting-edge technology. In contrast, the US dropped over 7.5 million tonnes of munitions during the Vietnam War, yet failed to secure victory.

In Afghanistan, the US's initial success against the Taliban quickly turned into "mission creep" as it failed to commit enough troops to achieve societal transformation.

Russia, despite its clear resolve and significant resource deployment, initially mobilized a fraction of its forces due to overconfidence. Ukraine, facing existential threats, spent nearly 40% of its GDP on military expenditure and raised a nearly one-million-strong army. Both Russia and Ukraine have showcased innovative technologies and demonstrated resolve, leading to challenges for the stronger party in achieving its objectives.