‘Postcard from our future’: El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths

This year’s El Nino phenomenon could lead to an estimated 451,000 premature deaths due to extreme heat worldwide during the first half of the climate pattern, from June 2026 to February 2027, according to a report by the University of Chicago. The Climate Impact Lab estimates that the frequency of extremely hot days could increase by 44% compared to normal years, with the greatest impact anticipated in resource-poor nations.

The Sahel region is forecast to experience 66,800 additional heat-related fatalities, while Southeast Asia could see nearly 39,000 more deaths, and India and Brazil could record 15,800 and 13,300 additional deaths, respectively. Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, emphasized the human toll, stating that this staggering number represents families, workers, and individuals living their lives.

The report suggests that tens of thousands of deaths could be averted through targeted emergency response measures, including early warning systems, cooling centers, and protections for outdoor laborers. The researchers also highlight the need for proactive efforts to mitigate food security risks and address the underlying causes of climate vulnerability.

The current El Nino is likened to a "postcard from our future," as it exhibits temperature trends that could become the norm within two decades if significant adaptation measures are not implemented. Tamma Carleton, the Climate Impact Lab’s faculty head of research, called for enhanced emergency response and strategic allocation of resources to prevent unnecessary loss of life, cautioning that the current extreme conditions risk becoming the new usual within a generation.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the current El Nino may be the strongest on record, underscoring the urgency of preparedness and adaptation efforts.