Her er Norges Banks rentebane – se grafen

Norges Bank has raised its interest rate to 4.5 percent, signaling a significant level of uncertainty among economies. This time around, however, it's a so-called main meeting, which means the central bank brings additional assessments, including future interest outlooks.

Norges Bank anticipates that the policy rate will evolve, according to Nils Kristian Knudsen, Head Strategy at Handelsbanken, who suggests that the bank is ready to raise the rate to 4.75 percent. There is a 50 percent chance of a rate increase to 4.75 percent by June, Knudsen explains. The likelihood of a rate cut increases gradually from the next meeting, he adds.

In a press release, central bank chief Ida Wolden Bache states that price growth has been above target for several years and that there will be a need to keep the rate high for a while longer. The committee is prepared to raise the rate further if necessary to bring price growth back to its target of 2 percent in a reasonable time, she says.

Sparebank 1 Markets strategist Dane Cekov notes that Norges Bank "lifts the interest rate a good bit from the downside forecast." There is a 40 percent chance of a further rate hike in the first quarter of 2027, he adds. He also mentions that the interest rate has been raised by up to 0.4 percentage points, more than what Sparebank 1 Markets had anticipated.

The monetary policy committee practically used no "artificial" measures this time, only the "model curve" contributed to the interest rate lift, Cekov says. For the past meeting, economists were largely divided around the midpoint between unchanged and a rate hike, with a 70 percent chance of a rate increase in the market. Norges Bank has a goal of low and stable price growth around 2 percent.

Core inflation was 3 percent in August and has been around that level for several years. Economies point to several reasons for price growth, including high wage growth, conflict in the Middle East, and diverging domestic inflation. For the last Norges Bank monetary policy report was in June, where the bank had raised the interest rate and opened for two rate hikes in 2026.

For the next year, the central bank projected a single rate cut. That time, it was around 50 percent chance that the rate would be lifted in August this year. The decision ended unchanged, but a hike was fully in place for September.