South Lebanon faces possible security gap as Unifil withdrawal nears with no successor agreed

Security concerns loom over south Lebanon as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) prepares to withdraw on December 31, with no successor agreement in place. The situation is complicated by Israel's recent elections, which have hardened its stance against concessions to Lebanon or its army. Israel's actions, including the destruction of Hezbollah tunnels, have led to allegations of a security vacuum and fears of a long-term Israeli presence.

Three potential scenarios have been discussed in Paris, Rome, and Brussels, but no definitive plan has emerged. The first option involves expanding the UN political mission in Beirut, known as Unscol, to handle some of UNIFIL's responsibilities. The second option proposes an EU mission to advise and train Lebanese armed forces, aiming to bolster their sovereignty. The third option suggests a UN-led verification mechanism to monitor Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal.

Experts are skeptical about the prospects for a coherent post-Unifil architecture. France and Italy are leading diplomatic efforts, but Israel remains reluctant to accept international troops in south Lebanon. The UN diplomat from Washington stated that the US is open to individual countries stepping in but does not want any successor force operating under a UN mandate.

Lebanon's leadership has not clearly articulated its demands for the new mechanism, leaving European diplomats in a delicate balancing act. The current situation is fraught with challenges, including Israel's refusal to withdraw, the Lebanese army's limited capacity, stalled Hezbollah disarmament, and the need for an international verification mechanism. While a complete security vacuum is not predicted, the long-term implications of UNIFIL's withdrawal remain uncertain.