South Lebanon faces possible security gap as Unifil withdrawal nears with no successor agreed

A security vacuum is emerging in south Lebanon as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) prepares to withdraw at the end of the month, with no replacement agreement in place, according to sources. Diplomatic efforts to address the potential security gap are intensifying at the UN General Assembly, with France and Italy leading the charge to bolster the Lebanese army and prevent a deterioration in the security situation.

However, Israel's upcoming October 27 elections have hardened its stance against concessions to Lebanon, accusing its army of lacking the will to disarm Hezbollah.

Experts warn that the lack of a clear post-Unifil architecture leaves few reasons for optimism. Three possible scenarios have been under discussion in Paris, Rome, and Brussels, but limited progress has been made. The first scenario involves expanding the UN political mission in Beirut (Unscol) to take on some of Unifil's responsibilities, including border delimitation and, potentially, residual UN presence for Blue Line monitoring.

The second option is an EU mission to train and advise Lebanese armed forces, aiming for their sovereignty over Lebanese territory. Yet, the most crucial talks are focused on Hezbollah's disarmament, which remains stalled despite Israeli warfare decimating the group's leadership.

Analysts stress that a UN peacekeeping force cannot simply withdraw without another mechanism taking its place. The US is reportedly open to individual countries stepping in but not to a successor force operating under a UN mandate. Security implications of Unifil's departure include the existing security zone established by Israel, which has resulted in the deaths of over 4,300 Lebanese and the destruction of border towns.

The Lebanese leadership has not yet formulated a clear request for what they want from the new mechanism, leaving the European diplomats to balance pressure on Lebanon without causing its collapse.