Novaya Gazeta Europe analysis shows Putin’s party would have won only 34% without ballot stuffing — not the official 57.8%

Novaya Gazeta Europe's analysis reveals that Russia's ruling pro-Kremlin United Russia party likely secured only about 34% of the vote in the recent parliamentary election, significantly lower than the official 57.8% reported. Election statistician Sergei Shpilkin's method, employed by the independent outlet, indicates that United Russia's result was artificially inflated.

The method involves comparing voting turnout with party results at individual polling stations, making a distinctive "comet tail" pattern when there's ballot stuffing. Analysis shows a dense cluster of polling stations with roughly 34% support for United Russia in the "honest core," where actual results were submitted. Higher-turnout precincts, however, reported much larger shares for the ruling party.

Moscow was excluded from the analysis due to remote voting, and several regions suspected of large-scale United Russia credit for other parties' votes were also left out. The Shpilkin method primarily detects statistical signs consistent with ballot stuffing. United Russia's party triumph is notable in cities like Riga, Baku, and seven others.

Yabloko, Russia's only anti-war party, secured seats in Novgorod Regional Duma, the only part of the country where it was allowed to compete. At least 36 opposition candidates have been barred from upcoming elections, with more than half coming from Yabloko. Russia's security services reportedly thwarted Yabloko's participation in the election.

The Supreme Court prohibited Yabloko from participating in the parliamentary election. Russian regions also restricted staining liquids at Duma election polling stations post-2024 ballot-box tampering incidents. United Russia garnered 70% of party-related news segments on federal television two weeks prior to the parliamentary election.