Xi rolls into Trump summit with China’s trade engine roaring

In the past four months, Xi Jinping has seen China's trade with the world surge while Donald Trump has faced a decline in approval ratings at home, analysts say. This reversal of fortunes has lowered expectations for their upcoming summit in Washington, with China not rushing to make concessions and Trump constrained by a costly war in Iran. The main focus of the September 24 meeting is whether the leaders will signal an extension to a trade truce that averted a major economic shock last year.

Xi is not looking for any tangible outcomes, but rather wants to extend the gentleman's agreement with Trump so China can fortify itself, according to Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution. US officials have sought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs, with the White House focusing on discussions about AI guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.

China has faced challenges like slowing domestic demand and a property crisis, but its export sector has continued to grow, contributing to a trade surplus that is on track to exceed $1 trillion for the second consecutive year. Chinese business leaders, including some facing US regulatory scrutiny, are expected to attend the summit.

The Trump administration had hoped to use unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, but this did not happen. Now, it is Xi Jinping's world, and US allies in Asia are concerned that he may pressure Trump to soften support for Taiwan ahead of the midterm elections. China-US ties have become more transactional, with Washington prioritizing trade talks and Beijing focusing on issues like Taiwan.

Despite US efforts to curb Chinese exports through sanctions, China's global trade surplus is still on track to break records.