Xi rolls into Trump summit with China's trade engine roaring

In the weeks following their last meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping has witnessed a significant increase in China's global trade while former President Donald Trump has faced declining approval ratings in the United States. As a result, expectations for their upcoming summit in Washington are lower, with analysts suggesting that Xi is not eager to make concessions and Trump is constrained by the costly war in Iran, which has negatively impacted both his popularity and the American economy.

While contentious topics like Taiwan may arise, the main focus of the September 24 meeting is the potential extension of a trade truce signed last year, which prevented a major economic shock. Foreign policy experts note that Xi is primarily interested in extending the truce to give China more time to strengthen its position. White House officials have sought to minimize the likelihood of major breakthroughs, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng leading preparatory talks in New York, focusing on areas such as AI regulations and trade in non-sensitive products.

Despite Trump's previous pledge to use tariffs to address China's trade deficit, his attention has been split among various foreign policy challenges, including conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. China has maintained robust exports, with its trade surplus projected to exceed $1 trillion for a second consecutive year. Chinese business leaders, including some facing US regulatory scrutiny, are expected to attend the summit.

While analysts believe Xi holds the upper hand, this could heighten unease among US allies in Asia, who anticipate Beijing to pressure Trump to soften support for Taiwan. If Xi accedes to such demands, it could prove challenging for Trump's Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections.