Three Ts will dominate Trump-Xi summit – but expect little movement on trade, less on Taiwan and who knows on tech
Chinese and American leaders meet amid growing urgency over the issue of AI regulation
The upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24 aims to focus on three key issues: trade, technology, and Taiwan. The technology aspect has gained added urgency due to the rapid developments in artificial intelligence. While the main difference from their previous summit in May 2026 will be the heightened importance of the technology element, the likelihood of transformative agreements remains uncertain.
The most pressing and straightforward matter to address is trade. Following their agreement in Busan, South Korea last year, both sides are expected to renew the pact that lifted some export controls, reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, and ensured the flow of critical minerals and rare earths to U.S. users. Additional tweaks may occur, but the new deal is expected to resemble the previous one.
Another point of discussion will likely involve a proposed Board of Trade to assess non-sensitive U.S.-China business interests. However, the specifics of this institution remain unclear. Similarly, the proposed Board of Investment, a Chinese suggestion, is still on the drawing board. The selection of business leaders from both countries to attend the summit could influence the outcomes of these discussions.
Taiwan remains a challenging issue, with little likely to be determined from the summit. President Trump has been less willing to commit the U.S. to defending Taiwan in case of an invasion, maintaining a strategic ambiguity stance. Meanwhile, China prefers to find non-war methods to bring the island under its control. Taiwan's upcoming presidential election in January 2028, with the opposition Kuomintang party potentially gaining the presidency, or an isolationist candidate winning in the U.S., may significantly impact Taiwan's future.
Other international issues, such as the war on Iran and the U.S. sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil, will likely receive less attention. Although these topics may be mentioned, they are not expected to lead to substantial changes in practice.
The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, will be the focus of diplomatic efforts to catch up with real-world developments. Both sides acknowledged the potential for talks on AI regulation during the May summit, but no concrete agreements were reached. The growing importance and unpredictability of AI have led to increased caution in both the U.S. and China.
While China's economy may benefit from the AI boom, concerns persist about its potential drawbacks, including job losses and social disruptions. Both nations have reasons to discuss AI regulation, with the U.S. concerned about rogue AI companies' social impacts and data center issues, and China wary of public sentiment and the Party's leadership values.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
