Europe faces Q4 jet fuel supply deficit even as South Korea becomes latest big supplier

Europe anticipates a jet fuel supply deficit in the fourth quarter, despite South Korea emerging as a new major supplier. Analysts and shipping data indicate Europe will import more jet fuel from South Korea, with September expected to be the highest since October 2022. This comes as Europe has turned to nations like Nigeria, the United States and Canada for jet fuel imports since the Iran war began over half a year ago, causing a drop in Middle East supplies and cutting off around half of Europe's jet imports.

The consultancy Energy Aspects predicts a deficit of 510,000 barrels per day, while the US sees a surplus of 18,000 bpd and Asia-Pacific a surplus of 419,000 bpd. South Korea's September jet fuel shipments to Europe have reached 129,000 barrels per day, the highest since that time last year. This surge in imports coincides with low inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil refining and storage hub, which hit their lowest in seven years in the week to September 10.

The widening gap between European diesel and Asian diesel markets has made it more profitable for Europe to import jet fuel, further contributing to the need for increased imports.