Europe faces Q4 jet fuel supply deficit even as South Korea becomes latest big supplier

Europe anticipates a jet fuel deficit in the fourth quarter, despite turning to distant suppliers like South Korea. The continent has increasingly imported jet fuel from nations like Nigeria, the United States, and Canada since the onset of the Iran war, which caused a decline in Middle Eastern supplies and cut around half of Europe's jet imports.

Europe is still vulnerable to further supply disruptions due to escalating Middle Eastern tensions. Energy Aspects predicts a 510,000-barrel daily deficit for Europe in the fourth quarter, contrasted with surpluses of 18,000 barrels per day in the United States and 419,000 bpd in Asia-Pacific.

In September, South Korea has emerged as a significant source of jet fuel shipments to Europe, with European imports reaching 129,000 barrels per day, the highest since October 2022, according to Kpler. Similar volumes were reported by LSEG data. With Europe expected to continue facing a jet fuel shortage, imports are anticipated to persist, according to James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities.

Jet fuel is categorized under middle distillates, which also include diesel and gas oil. European diesel prices reached a record high this week, surpassing Asia's diesel markets. The widening gap between Asian and European benchmarks is making it more profitable to export barrels into Europe, as per Noel-Beswick.

The drop in Europe's jet fuel stocks aligns with the influx of South Korean imports. Stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil refining and storage hub hit their lowest in seven years in the week ending September 10. The average monthly exports from Asia last year were 1.5 million barrels, as indicated by Kpler data. South Korea's jet fuel production for July reached a seven-year high of nearly 13.89 million barrels, with exports hitting a 3-1/2-year high, according to government data.

An increase in refinery crude processing rates has led to this surge in output, and traders anticipate a firmer increase in crude runs for August compared to July.