AfD predicts Merz's exit as German chancellor faces mounting pressure

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has predicted that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will resign before the end of the year, following his centre-right CDU party's defeat in two recent state elections. The Alternative for Germany topped the polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the CDU performed its worst result since its formation in 1945, securing just 4.9% of the vote.

Chancellor Merz, who has been in office for 16 months, has seen his approval ratings plummet, while his party has faced a string of state vote losses against the AfD, which currently leads nationwide polls. Despite the political turmoil, Merz addressed the nation via TV on Sunday after initial exit poll results were announced, acknowledging the CDU's "disaster" in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and attributing the decline in trust in the country's institutions to radical parties on both the left and the right.

Analysts view Merz's preemptive resignation move as a way to control the narrative and prevent a personnel debate from escalating. The chancellor has also canceled his participation in the UN General Assembly in New York to focus on addressing the aftermath of the elections. Potential successors to Merz, such as Hendrik Wuest and Markus Soeder, have not openly declared their intentions, possibly to avoid appearing disloyal.

Merz's term has been marked by economic stagnation, strained relations with Russia, and rising unemployment, which have fueled public discontent and the AfD's growing popularity.