Germans vote in state elections threatening fresh blow to Merz

German voters will head to the polls on Sunday in two state elections that could intensify pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose political future has been uncertain since the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained traction in a regional vote earlier this month. These elections follow a previous AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where the party narrowly avoided winning an absolute majority.

While regional elections usually garner limited attention, the AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt has sent shockwaves across Europe. Over the past decade, the party has evolved from a marginal Eurosceptic group to the nation's most popular political force. While it is improbable that the AfD will replicate its Saxony-Anhalt triumph in either of Sunday's state elections, the results are expected to highlight the party's remarkable recent gains and spark debates surrounding the coalition agreements it is reluctant to enter.

Chancellor Merz, whose approval ratings have plummeted to 14%, according to recent polls, faces mounting doubts about his leadership within his own conservative Christian Democratic Union party. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the former communist east, the CDU is expected to perform its worst-ever in the election, with opinion polls indicating that the party may fail to cross the minimum threshold necessary to secure a seat in the state parliament.

Merz, who was elected last year on a promise of ambitious reforms to reignite Germany's stagnant economy, has encountered difficulties in winning over skeptical voters, who have grown frustrated with unpopular pension, tax, and healthcare reforms, as well as a series of gaffes and communication errors. Despite this, senior CDU figures have remained loyal to Merz, recognizing that replacing the chancellor— a move that would be constitutionally challenging— would leave any successor confronted with the same severe economic challenges.

Nevertheless, discontent with Merz's administration has permeated the campaigns in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused on pressing concerns such as soaring energy and housing costs. Rising fuel prices have particularly affected Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where many residents rely on cars for transportation, putting additional pressure on Merz to collaborate with his Social Democrat coalition partners on relief measures.

Meanwhile, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) have narrowed the gap with the AfD in recent weeks, with polls showing the SPD edging ahead of the AfD for the first time in months. The SPD is now leading with 37%, the AfD follows at 36%, while the far-left Left Party and the environmental Greens are at 9% and 5%, respectively, just above the threshold for entering the parliament.

In Berlin, the Left Party has moved ahead of the CDU, posing a threat to the conservative hold on the mayor's office in a campaign that has centered around affordable housing. Despite its liberal reputation, Berlin has also seen significant AfD gains, placing the party in third place. According to the most recent poll, the Left Party holds 22% of the vote, the CDU follows at 20%, the Greens have 15%, and the SPD 12%.

The AfD sits at 18%, while the far-left BSW, which has indicated willingness to collaborate with the AfD, is just under the 4% parliamentary threshold.