AI startup Mantic raises $25 million for superhuman forecasting

Mantic, an AI startup that outperformed human competitors in a recent forecasting contest, has secured $25 million in seed funding. The London-based company, led by CEO Toby Shevlane, specializes in using frontier AI models to make more accurate predictions about political, economic, and cultural events. In the summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, an online forecasting tournament, Mantic's predictions proved to be more precise than those of human participants.

This victory marks the first time AI has dominated the competition. Radical Ventures led the funding round, backed by Microsoft's venture fund M12, the startup Thinking Machines Lab, Balderton Capital, and others. Mantic's unique approach involves enhancing existing AI models for forecasting purposes, and it claims to avoid the "herd mentality" that often plagues human forecasters.

The startup's forecasts have attracted interest from various sectors, including hedge funds and trading firms, which see potential for immediate financial gains.