Tusk warns of ‘accidental’ Russian strikes against Ukraine’s allies in fall and winter

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Thursday that Russia may launch drone or missile strikes in the coming months against countries supporting Ukraine, framing them as accidental incidents. In a parliamentary address, Tusk cited intelligence assessments from NATO, Ukraine, and Poland, suggesting that "the most likely scenario for the next few months" is Russia stepping up attacks on Ukraine and its allies, including Poland.

Tusk claimed Russia aims to weaken NATO's unity and make members doubt the practicality of Article 5, which states that an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all. He expressed concern that drones or missiles could enter the territory of NATO countries on the eastern flank, causing damage, and that the official explanation would be an accident.

Tusk also noted that not all Western politicians are focused on defending Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia, hoping to showcase their strength in the face of Russian aggression. He pointed out that some European politicians and groups were "waiting for an excuse" to refuse aid to Poland, Latvia, or Lithuania if a conflict arose.

Tusk warned that the fall and winter months could be "tragically critical" for Ukraine, as Russia is expected to conduct continuous, high-intensity strikes on major Ukrainian cities, targeting essential infrastructure like warehouses and rail systems vital to its defense. These attacks have intensified in recent weeks and extended into western Ukraine near the Polish border, as Russia increases its use of jet-powered drones that Ukraine has found challenging to intercept.