Russian Fuel Exports Rebound in August But Still Down 50% From Last Year

Russia's seaborne oil exports rose 16.4% in August from July, with several refineries returning from unplanned maintenance, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations. The country shipped 4.57 million metric tons of oil products, but this still represents a 50% decrease from August 2025 levels. The cargo mix favored naphtha and fuel oil, while Ukraine's drone strikes continued to impact refineries, and Moscow restricted diesel exports.

The Baltic region saw the most improvement, with shipments rising 32.7% to 2.62 million tons, while Black Sea and Azov Sea exports fell 25.3% to 930,000 tons. Arctic shipments from Murmansk and Arkhangelsk increased to 130,400 tons from 44,000 tons, and Far East loadings climbed 34% to 890,000 tons. However, the month-over-month gain appears less impressive when compared to last year.

Russia's refinery system has been affected by repeated Ukrainian attacks, with three of the six largest diesel-producing refineries either shut or operating at one-quarter capacity, accounting for about half of Russian diesel production. Russia has extended its diesel export ban through October 31, providing refineries with more time to recover and rebuild stocks.

Russian diesel exports had already dropped below 1 million metric tons in June, down from roughly 2.5 million tons per month a year earlier. Russia is a major global diesel exporter, and the missing cargoes are particularly concerning in a market already short on Middle Eastern fuel. U.S. diesel prices have risen above $6 per gallon due to refinery outages in Russia and reduced Persian Gulf product flows.

While August's 16.4% export increase indicates some return of Russian refinery capacity, the 50% year-over-year decline highlights the extent of the missing capacity.