Donald Trump must realise America cannot deal with Iran on its own

As the conflict with Iran continues, it becomes increasingly clear that the United States' policy has reached a critical juncture. President Donald Trump claims substantial progress, yet the truth is far more nuanced. Iran's nuclear program may have been delayed, but it's far from dismantled. Its conventional forces remain a significant threat and the sanctions imposed by the US are unlikely to topple the regime that has mastered evasion tactics.

The administration's strategy of pressuring Iran before negotiations is logical, but Tehran perceives this as a fight for survival, not a concession opportunity. Iran sees the demands from Washington as political suicide, not a legitimate request.

The idea that the only path forward is to accept the limits of US pressure and negotiate a less stringent deal is tempting. This might temporarily ease tensions, restore commercial traffic, and calm global markets. However, it would not eliminate Iran's nuclear program or the regime's global threats. Instead, it would merely postpone the issue and further empower Iran. Tehran would be more inclined to strike another deal if it guaranteed the regime's continued existence.

Therefore, the real lesson from this situation is not to settle for a superficial agreement, but to acknowledge that the US cannot resolve this problem alone. Despite its military prowess and political influence, this proves true. This understanding was not heeded in Iraq, where the US acted unilaterally and faced unforeseen consequences.

Some of Washington's Arab partners are alarmed by this unilateral stance, as it mirrors Iraq's mistake - acting without consultation or a shared strategy, leading to a conflict that affects them as well.

The Iran issue may not be as high a priority as many believe for Washington to engage with China, a country that provides Iran with economic support. This realization leads to the conclusion that US negotiations should focus on China. European allies can assist if the US is genuinely aiming for diplomacy that serves a shared interest.

However, the key actor to incentivize is China. If Beijing reduces its support for Tehran, Iran may be compelled to make significant concessions. The real question is how much the US is willing to pay to engage with China on this issue. The Iran issue is a collective problem affecting everyone, not just a bilateral contest with Tehran.