Donald Trump must realise America cannot deal with Iran on its own

The situation involving the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock. Despite extensive efforts, the US cannot completely dismantle Iran's nuclear program, or impede its military strength or economic stability. President Trump insists that the US is winning the conflict with Iran, claiming that Iran's capabilities and economy have been significantly weakened.

However, Iran's nuclear program has merely been delayed, and its military forces continue to present a substantial threat. While economic sanctions have crippled Iran's economy, they are unlikely to force a regime that has mastered the art of evasion. The US strategy of pressuring Iran before negotiations is logical. Yet, Tehran perceives this as a matter of existential survival.

Washington demands Iran to cease disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, abandon its nuclear program, limit military capabilities, and sever ties with regional militias and terrorist groups. For Iran, these demands constitute political suicide. The only way out of this impasse might appear to be accepting the constraints of US pressure and attempting to negotiate a slightly improved deal.

However, this approach would only temporarily resolve the conflict, failing to eradicate Iran's nuclear program or diminish the regime's threats to international security. A deal that barely alters the status quo would merely delay the problem and increase Iranian confidence. Tehran would welcome another deal with Washington, provided it ensures the regime's survival.

The critical lesson here is that the US, despite its military prowess and political influence, must acknowledge that it cannot resolve this issue alone. This realization should not be a surprise; Washington failed to learn this lesson in Iraq, where its unilateral actions led to more problems than solutions. Some of Washington's Arab allies are concerned that the US might repeat this mistake, acting independently without consulting them or forming a unified strategy.

Iran is trapped in a conflict it did not desire, and is now facing Iranian missiles and drones as targets. Could the Iran issue be significant enough for Washington to consider a potentially high cost imposed by China? The Cold War was won collectively; the US was indispensable but required its allies to exploit the Soviet Union's weaknesses and hasten its collapse.

It could not have achieved success without Britain, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, and more. Iran is not the Soviet Union, but collective pressure still holds relevance. Without China's economic support, and to a lesser extent, Russia's weapons and intelligence, Tehran would be far weaker. Washington's real negotiations should target China.

European allies could assist if the US demonstrates genuine commitment to diplomacy that serves shared interests. However, China is the pivotal actor to entice. If China withdraws support for Iran, the latter will have little choice but to make meaningful concessions. The question, then, is at what cost will China cooperate? Is the Iran issue a high enough priority for Washington to entertain a potentially significant Chinese price?

Only time will reveal the answer. President Trump should contact President Xi Jinping, but not before assembling a united front with international friends and allies. It is about time Washington treats the Iran issue as a global problem affecting everyone, rather than a bilateral standoff with Tehran.