US Federal Reserve meeting today: When and where to watch Kevin Warsh's Speech? Here's what to expect

The Federal Reserve is set to meet on September 15-16 in Washington, D.C. to discuss interest rates. At 2:00 pm Eastern Standard Time (11:30 pm Indian Standard Time) on September 16, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will release the decision and conduct a press briefing. This gathering is one of four annual meetings where the central bank shares its outlook on interest rates.

U.S. interest rates have remained steady at 3.50%-3.75% since July, but some members argued that rate hikes were needed due to US price inflation exceeding the Fed's comfort threshold. Market reactions to the possibility of a rate change have been significant, with the chance of an increase rising from under 30% to around 65% in recent weeks.

Currently, the odds of a rate hike are estimated at about 50%, essentially a coin flip with a slight bias towards higher rates. If the Fed raises rates, it would be the first increase in over a year, following a period of stable or falling rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 92.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate increase, while only a 7.6% chance of maintaining the current rate.

A Reuters survey found that 85% of surveyed economists (86 out of 101) expect a rate hike, with 53% expecting at least one more hike by March 2027. Market analysts note that the central bank's flexibility has been limited by strong economic performance. Kevin Warsh faces a challenge in balancing external pressure for lower rates with the majority's support for an increase, making it likely he will "go with the internal flow and accede to the committee's wishes for a hike."

The Fed will formally announce its September Federal Open Market Committee decision at 2:00 pm Eastern Time (11:30 pm Indian Standard Time) on September 16. Following the release, Kevin Warsh will hold his post-meeting press conference at 2:30 pm Eastern Time (12:00 am Indian Standard Time on September 17). The announcement and press conference will be live streamed on the Federal Reserve's official social media channels.