Online gambling shrinks Brazil’s consumption and economic activity

A recent study from the University of São Paulo's Center for Research on Macroeconomics of Inequalities (MADE) highlights the significant impact of online gambling on Brazil's consumption and economic activity. In 2025, this form of gambling withdrew between BRL 120 billion and BRL 141 billion from the economy, accounting for 0.9 to 1.1 percent of Brazil's GDP.

This loss is equivalent to 40 to 50 percent of the country's total growth in 2025 and is five times more than the economic impact of US tariffs on Brazil. Despite the creation of direct and indirect jobs related to online betting platforms, the overall economic effect remains largely unchanged.

The study estimates that this reduction in economic activity leads to a loss of tax revenue between BRL 31.1 billion and BRL 54.8 billion. Even after accounting for the BRL 9 billion directly collected from gambling platforms, the net effect on public finances is still negative, potentially reaching BRL 46 billion. This represents 10 to 20 percent of São Paulo's total public health budget in 2025, demonstrating that while gambling generates direct revenue, the economic activity it stifles outweighs that revenue.

The researchers conclude that from an economic standpoint, the issue extends beyond individual impacts, causing macroeconomic implications by diverting income, particularly from lower-income households, leading to increased inequality, reduced demand, and a significant impact on GDP.