El Niño 2026 just broke a major threshold heading into hurricane season. Here’s what that means for the storm forecast
El Niño just hit another milestone before we’ve even seen the first major storm of this year’s U.S. hurricane season. And no, we’re not talking about predictions that El Niño is likely to be the strongest on record , or that it could result in extreme weather through 2027 , including raising sea levels along California’s coast by as much as a foot , potentially triggering massive flooding and…
El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-usual water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has recently reached a significant milestone. On September 14, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that the current El Niño event has crossed the threshold of being a "very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27" - a classification known as a Super El Niño.
NOAA reported that during the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of an event that would surpass the strength of previous El Niño events since 1950. The agency measured the threshold at 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit in weekly sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This qualifies it for "super" status.
El Niño refers to the warming of the ocean surface and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The usual winds blowing from west to east weaken due to the event, disrupting normal weather patterns and creating more extreme meteorological conditions. This can lead to increased storm activity, wildfires, droughts, and other severe weather events, particularly in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast of the United States.
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