Cost of Alberta separation could be up to $170B: report

An independent report by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy has found that separating from Canada could cost Alberta up to $170 billion. Commissioned by the Alberta government, the report released on Wednesday presents two scenarios for the province's future. In a "smooth" situation, Alberta could achieve a favourable deal with Canada, resulting in a quick transition to a separate country.

However, in a "difficult" scenario, Canada could prove hostile, prolonging the separation process and causing significant economic harm. Should Alberta proceed with the "difficult" path, the GDP would drop by 10.1% in five years, employment would fall by 10%, and the typical worker's annual income would be $5,500 lower. After 20 years, unemployment would be at 4.7%, wages would be $12,000 less, and taxes would increase by $6,600 annually.

Conversely, the "smooth" scenario could preserve Alberta's access to major trade markets and improve government services, but the GDP would still be about 2.2% lower in five years, employment would be 0.7% lower than today, and take-home pay would decrease by $1,200. After 20 years, the GDP could rise by 3.4%, employment would increase by 0.7%, and Alberta's taxes would decline by $1,100.

Treasury Board President and Finance Minister Jason Nixon emphasized that the report provides "important considerations" for Albertans as they prepare to vote on a referendum on October 19.