Cedi to end year at GH¢12.20 to a US dollar – Databank Research

The Ghana cedi is projected to close the year at GH¢12.20 per US dollar, according to Databank Research. This forecast was adjusted downward by 65 basis points from an earlier prediction. The research firm attributes this change to increased foreign exchange inflows and an improving external position. In its half-year economic outlook, Databank Research highlighted that the 30% Gold Off-Take Mandate under GoldBod, combined with a budget increase from GH¢4.5 billion to GH¢5.0 billion, should stimulate gold mobilization and help accumulate reserves.

This, along with the steady repatriation of export earnings, is likely to strengthen the Bank of Ghana's foreign exchange buffers.

Looking ahead, the stability of the cedi will depend on the equilibrium between reserve accumulation and timely foreign exchange intervention. Given that most major external obligations for 2026 are already addressed, the Bank of Ghana is expected to continue active market support during the September 2026 to November 2026 peak demand period.

Interventions are anticipated to range between US$1.2 billion and US$1.5 billion, aiming to smooth seasonal forex pressures while maintaining a stable exchange rate that supports both export and import competitiveness.

Databank Research also stated that Ghana's Balance of Payments (BoP) position will remain favorable. This projection is based on sustained current account surpluses and robust gold export earnings. Additionally, the firm foresees further positive impacts from the recovery in crude oil output. At a conservative estimate of $75 per barrel, sustained oil production momentum is expected to generate between US$340 million and US$410 million in cumulative gross export proceeds during the final six months of 2026.

This increase in export earnings is projected to bolster Ghana's medium-term BoP resilience and ensure that the central bank's reserves exceed five months of import cover.