Cedi to end year at GH¢12.20 to a US dollar – Databank Research

The Ghana cedi is projected to conclude 2026 at a rate of GH¢12.20 to the US dollar, according to Databank Research. The forecast was adjusted downwards by 65 basis points following a reassessment. The reasoning behind this revision was attributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and an enhanced external position.

In their half-year economic outlook, Databank Research noted that the 30% Gold Off-Take Mandate under GoldBod, coupled with the increase in its budget allocation from GH¢4.5 billion to GH¢5.0 billion, should facilitate the mobilization of gold and bolster reserve accumulation. This, they explained, combined with the ongoing repatriation of export proceeds, is expected to bolster the Bank of Ghana's forex buffers.

Looking towards the future, the stability of the cedi will depend on the balance between reserve accumulation and timely foreign exchange intervention. The Bank of Ghana is anticipated to maintain active market support between September 2026 and November 2026, during the peak demand period. This support is expected to span an intervention range of US$1.2 billion to US$1.5 billion, which would help mitigate seasonal forex pressures while maintaining a stable exchange rate path that balances export and import competitiveness.

In terms of the Balance of Payments (BoP) position, Databank Research stated that Ghana's BoP would remain favorable. This projection is based on sustained current account surpluses and robust gold export earnings. The research firm also indicated that further positive aspects may emerge from the recovery in crude oil output. If this occurs, it could broaden export earnings, enhance foreign exchange inflows, and contribute to an additional reserve buffer for accumulation.

Under a conservative baseline of US$75 per barrel, Databank Research estimated that sustained oil production would generate US$340 million to US$410 million in cumulative gross export proceeds during the final six months of 2026. This would enhance Ghana's medium-term BoP resilience and ensure the central bank's reserve accumulation stays above 5 months of import cover.